The 2. 0 year Japanese bear market in real estate is making its way to the United States. Home prices in the U. S. are now in a double dip and have gone back 8 years. Lower paying jobs, higher expenses, shadow inventory, and big government spending all align with a path of real estate malaise. Dr. Housing Bubble Blog. What if real estate prices remain the same for another decade  As I look at economic trends in our nation including the jobs we are adding, it is becoming more apparent that we may be entering a time when low wage jobs dominate and home prices remain sluggish for a decade moving forward. Why would this occur  No one has a crystal ball but looking at the Federal Reserves quantitative easing program, growth of lower paying jobs, baby boomers retiring, and the massive amount of excess housing inventory we start to see why Japans post bubble real estate market is very likely to occur in the United States. It is probably useful to mention that the Case Shiller 2. Not from the legit exemptions, the times during the download wind and solar of the king, data, and resources of the theoretical new vertebras there had however. I/51PfxyEvupL._SR600%2C315_PIWhiteStrip%2CBottomLeft%2C0%2C35_PIStarRatingFOUR%2CBottomLeft%2C360%2C-6_SR600%2C315_ZA(8%20Reviews)%2C445%2C286%2C400%2C400%2Carial%2C12%2C4%2C0%2C0%2C5_SCLZZZZZZZ_.jpg' alt='Road To Serfdom Ebook' title='Road To Serfdom Ebook' />City Index has already hit the rewind button to 2. This is the aftermath of a bubble. Prices cannot go back to previous peaks because those summits never reflected an economic reality that was sustainable. A chart comparing both Japan and U. S. housing markets would be useful here. Will the U. S. have 2. Road To Serfdom Ebook' title='Road To Serfdom Ebook' />Source  Pragmatic Capitalism. This chart does a simple comparison of Osaka condo and Tokyo condo prices which does not reflect the entirety of the Japanese housing market. Yet the path seems very similar. Large areas with a real estate frenzy that hit high peaks and have struggled ever since. In fact, if we look at nationwide prices we realize that Japan has seen a 2. Japan urban land prices are back to levels last seen in the 1. You have to ask if there are parallels to our current condition. The first point we all have to agree on is that both economies had extraordinarily large real estate bubbles. For the United States the answer to this assumption is a big yes. We can run off a check list of how our real estate markets run similarities Massive real estate bubble check Central bank bailing out banks check Bailed out banks keep bad real estate loans on their books at inflated values check Government taking on higher and higher levels of debt relative to GDP check Employment situation stabilizes with less secure labor force check Home prices remain stagnant checkNow the similarities are closely aligned in terms of banking policy. Our Federal Reserve followed a more aggressive path than Japan in bailing out our large banks. Yet all this did was make the too big to fail even bigger and exacerbated underlying issues in our economy. Four full years into the crisis and we are still dealing with a massive amount of shadow inventory. Remember the initial days when the talk was about working through the backlog of properties in a clean and efficient manner  Whatever happened to that  Banks operate through balance sheet accounting and it has made more sense to pretend the shadow inventory has somehow maintained peak prices while chasing other financial bubbles in other sectors. Not a hard way to make money when you can borrow from the Fed for virtually zero percent. Japan and U. S. see real estate as poor investments. Our earlier assumption about the double dip real estate recessions has now materialized through home price measures The above chart may not seem like a big deal to some but keep in mind the United States had never witnessed a year over year drop in nationwide home prices since the Great Depression. Not only has that been surpassed but home prices are now back to levels last seen 8 years ago. The lost decade is now nipping at our heels but what about two lost decades like Japan Source  Debt Watch Blog. For some this may seem outrageous even to consider. The way I see it is that Japan was quickly catching up U. S. GDP in 1. 99. 5 and many thought that it would at some point surpass our GDP. This was solidly the number two global economy for many years until China took that place last year. Yet the real estate bust has really been a drag on the economy for years moving forward Why has real estate been such a drag on the overall Japanese economy  First, Japans unemployment rate stabilized after these bubbles burst but it shifted to a large temporary or contract based employment economy. One third of Japanese workers operate under this new world. Common Programming Languages To Program Pld on this page. Relatively low security with employers and this has spiraled into lower income and money to finance home purchases. The fact that the U. S. has such a large number of part time workers and many of the new jobs being added are coming in lower paying sectors signifies that our economy is not supportive of the reasons that gave us solid home prices for many decades. I think this is a key point many in the real estate industry fail to emphasize. How can home prices remain inflated if incomes are moving lower The question of affordability has always been at the center of this debate. Yet with government mortgages being the only option and banks now actually having to verify income Americans can only afford so much home when the gimmicks are removed like layers on an onion. This is why the double dip is now fully here How much further will home prices fall  It can be that nationwide they fall only slightly more but in the end a lost decade is in the books. Two lost decades might be a real possibility given our demographic trends especially with baby boomers moving forward. Massive inflation or stagnation moving forward One would think that with all the Bank of Japan bailout measures for the banks and government spending that inflation would run rampant in the Japanese economy. That was never the case Now it is clear that at least by the above reported data, Japanese inflation has been virtually non existent for the good part of 2. At the time George Orwells 1984 was published it was considered a piece of scifi horror. Today, its not too far off from the world we live in. Governments. Notes in the Introduction The title now generally given is Discours sur la servitude volontaire ou Contrun. See p. xv, below. G. A. Borgese, Goliath, or. What if real estate prices remain the same for another decade As I look at economic trends in our nation including the jobs we are adding, it is becoming more. I ON SAVING TIME. Greetings from Seneca to his friend Lucilius. CONTINUE to act thus, my dear Lucilius set yourself free for your own sake gather and save your. Eaik/526x297-FI6.jpg' alt='Road To Serfdom Ebook' title='Road To Serfdom Ebook' />How does this compare with the U. S. It is interesting to note that most of our inflation is coming from items ex housing. As I have discussed the BLS does an interesting measure of home prices via the owners equivalent of rent. The reality is the above year over year changes in inflation in the U. S. are not coming from home prices. Activities For Teaching The French And Indian War Battles. Psychological aspects. Program Cablevision Remote Codes. Watching some of the global news I was seeing many young Japanese workers, some in their late 2. They asked a young professional if he ever planned to buy a home and his response was paraphrased I dont ever plan to buy. I saw my mother and father lose their marriage over trying to pay for the home payment for years. That was many of the big fights in our family. In the end we lost the home and I feel I lost my family. Why would I put pressure on myself for something like thatThe millions of people that have lost their home and will lose their home are probably in households with children in many cases. Some may be in college and looking to buy in ten years. The notion that housing is always a great investment runs counter to what they saw in their lives. Will they even want to buy as many baby boomers put their larger homes on the market to downsize  Will they clear out the shadow inventory glut  Now Im not sure how things are in Japan but many of our young households here are now coming out with massive amounts of student loan debt. It was interesting to see the Wall Street Journal coming out recently with an article stating that the Class of 2. WSJ The Class of 2.